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Fire OblationTier 1

at Steamship Games RDO Store Championship

decks
2 (14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4% avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
54.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1460 · median 1460 · range 1382–1538 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1102 Q1 1210 Q3 1376 1538
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale 14.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.3% -4.3
Fire Crux Mage 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Umbra Guardian 7.1% 0
Water Genbu 7.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 52.1% +2.0
Water Ravishing Mill 7.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 7.1% 0
Wind Chess 7.1% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.0% +3.1
Wind Neos 7.1% 0
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 0
Wind Slimes 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.9% +1.5
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing -1.00 0 1 0
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Golden Checkmate -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Angelic Channeling -1.00 0 1 0
Undeniable Truth -1.00 0 1 0
Flamme Sorcel -1.00 0 1 0
Spring Cleaning +1.00 1 0 0
Eye of Argus +1.00 1 0 0
Rictus Tiding +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Out -1.00 0 1 0
Topsy Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Expel the Departed -1.00 0 1 0
Umbra Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Ionized Asceticism -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Devastating Blow +1.00 1 0 0
Folded Shadows -1.00 0 1 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 1 0 0
Crystal of Argus +1.00 1 0 0
Grande Sonnerie -1.00 0 1 0
Argus, All-Seeing Giant +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte -1.00 0 1 0
Abnegation +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Advent of the Stormcaller -1.00 0 1 0
Ducal Seal +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/51736/archetypes/Fire Oblation